Using Elliott Wave To Trade Forex Markets

Posted on July 9, 2016 by Anthony Jerdine

Using Elliott Wave To Trade Forex Markets
By Anthony Jerdine

In terms of the total value of all transactions, the forex market has become the largest market in the world. As the economies of countries across the globe become more and more intertwined, the relationship between the currencies of various countries grows in importance. It is this development that continues to drive interest in the forex markets. This article will examine a method to trade forex markets using the Elliott Wave Theory.

The Elliott Wave Theory
The Elliott Wave Theory is a method of analysis developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871-1948) that is based on the theory that, in nature, many things happen in a five-wave pattern. As applied to the financial markets, the assumption is that a given market will advance in a pattern of five waves – three up waves, numbered 1, 3 and 5 – which are separated by two down waves, number 2 and number 4. The theory further holds that each five-wave up-move will be followed by a down-move also consisting of five waves – this time, three down waves, numbered 1, 3 and 5, separated by two up waves numbered two and four.

In addition, the theory holds that each of the countertrend waves – i.e., wave number 2 and number 4 – will unfold in an ABC pattern. In other words, during waves 2 and 4 of a five-wave uptrend, the security in question will retrace part of the wave 1 advance in a pattern consisting of two smaller down waves (labeled A and C) separated by one up wave (labeled B). Likewise, during waves 2 and 4 of a five-wave down-trend, the security in question will retrace part of the wave one decline in a pattern consisting of two smaller up-waves (labeled A and C) separated by one down-wave (labeled B).

In reality, things typically do not unfold in such a neat, clean, and easy to follow five-wave pattern. As a result, many individuals who espouse a belief in Elliott Wave analysis nevertheless end up interpreting the current wave count differently than other adherents. And in fact, it can be argued that the Elliott Wave is as much an art as it is a science, and that various interpretations are to be expected.

As such, one important thing to note is that this article is not so much about how to generate an Elliott Wave count – since so many individuals end up with different interpretations – but rather about how to trade forex markets using the Elliott Wave as the driving force. For the purposes of this article, I will use the Elliott Wave count as generated objectively by ProfitSource source software by Hubb. The software has an automated algorithm for generating and displaying the wave count.

It should be noted that the preferred count can change dramatically from one day to the next based on the built-in algorithm, and that another person or program may arrive at a different interpretation of the wave count and any given point in time. Still the benefit of using this method is that for better or worse, the count is calculated using an objective algorithm and is not open to subjective interpretation.

Laying Out the Steps of a Plan
Before embarking on any trading campaign it is essential to have a plan in place. So let’s set up a straightforward plan for using Elliott Wave as a basis for trading forex markets. Here are the steps that we will employ:

Step 1. Select a method for generating an Elliott Wave count.
This may be based on your own analysis, or via some charting or analysis software. As mentioned, we will use the wave count generated by ProfitSource software by HUBB.
Step 2. Wait for a wave 5 to begin.
In ProfitSource this occurs when a wave marked as “3” changes to a wave marked as “4” (this actually indicates the end of wave 4 and the start of wave 5). Waiting for this to occur can be the toughest part, for this step can require a great deal of patience. A given single forex market may experience the setup that we are looking for only a few times a year.
Step 3. Look for confirmation of the trend using another indicator or indicators.
Long Setup Confirmation: Once a wave 3 above the price bar changes to a wave 4 marked below the price bar we will then assess the following indicators to confirm that a long trade should be made:
90-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is positive (i.e., greater than zero)
The three-day relative strength index reverses to upside for one day.
These two confirming actions do not have to take place on the day that the wave number changes from 3 to 4. As long as the both occur at some point prior to the wave count being something other than 4, then a confirmation is considered to be in force and we will enter a long trade.

Short Setup Confirmation: Once a wave 3 below the price bar changes to a wave 4 marked above the price bar we will then assess the following indicators to confirm that a short trade should be made:

90-day CCI is negative (i.e., greater than zero)
The three-day RSI reverses to downside for one day
These two confirming actions do not have to take place on the day that the wave number changes from 3 to 4. As long as the both occur at some point prior to the wave count being something other than 4, then a confirmation is considered to be in force and we will enter a short trade.

Step 4. Identify a reasonable stop-loss point.
For a long setup we will subtract three times the three-day average true range from the low established leading up to the trade as our initial stop-loss point. For a short setup we will add three times the three-day average true range to the high established leading up to the trade, and use this as our initial stop-loss point (See example to follow).
Step 5. Enter trade and stop-loss order.
We will assume that a trade is entered at the next day’s open price. The stop-loss order will also be placed. This order is a trailing stop and we be updated each day that the trade is open.
Step 6. Consider taking some profits on first good move and trail a stop for the rest of the position.
Trade Exit Plan
1. If stop-loss order is hit then the entire trade is exited.

2. If the three-day RSI reaches 85 or higher for a long trade, or 15 or lower for a short trade, or if the wave count changes from 4 to 5, we will sell half and adjust our trailing stop as follows:

For a long trade we will use a trailing stop that subtracts one times the three-day average true range from the previous day’s low.
For a short trade we will use a trailing stop that adds one times the three-day average true range to the previous day’s high.
3. If the wave count changes to something other than a wave 5, we will simply exit the trade on the next day.

Example Setup and Trade
In Figure 1 we see the setup for a short trade. On the most recent trading day, the blue number 4 first appeared above the price bar. Prior to the day, a blue number 3 had appeared below each price bar for the past several days. This suggests that a wave 5 decline may be setting up.

Below the bar chart you can see that the three-day RSI ticked lower on the day and that the 90-day CCI is in negative territory. This confirms the setup and constitutes a sell short signal, so we also calculate our stop-loss price by adding three times the average true range over the last three days to the current day’s high price. On the next day the euro/yen cross was sold short at 112.63 and a trailing stop was entered at 117.74.
Figure 1 – A sell short setup for the euro/yen cross is completed.
In Figure 2 you can see that roughly a month later the three-day RSI registered a reading below 15. As a result, on the next day we would have bought back half of our position at 109.50 and also adjusted our trailing stop to only one times (rather than three times) the average true range over the past three days added to the current day’s high, thus generating a much tighter trailing stop (this tighter stop does not appear until Figure 3).
Figure 2 – Three-day RSI signal profit-taking opportunity; half of short position is covered and trailing stop is tightened.
Finally, in Figure 3 you can see that the euro/yen cross worked slightly lower over the next several weeks, but ultimately our trailing stop was hit and the remaining portion of our original short position was closed out at 109.44.
Figure 3 – Trailing top is hit; trade is exited.

Conclusion
There are many ways to interpret an Elliott Wave count. There are also many methods for entering and exiting trades once a signal is deemed to have occurred. This article serves as an example of just one way to go about performing these tasks. Whatever method one ultimately chooses the keys to successful implementation are to:

Develop some objective way to interpret the current Elliott Wave count. Consider employing some sort of filter or filters to ensure a valid trading signal.
Always have a stop-loss point.
Consider taking profits on the first good move in the expected direction and then letting the rest ride with a trailing stop.

Strength Training

Posted on July 4, 2016 by Anthony Jerdine

The rumors aren’t true
I’ve got to warn you. There are false rumors going around about strength training.

The truth is that strength training is one of the absolute best things you can do for your health and appearance.

If you’ve fallen for these 5 myths then you’re missing out on tremendous potential results.

Myth #1 Muscle Turns Into Fat

Why would anyone want to build muscle if it could morph into fat after a span of disuse? Rest assured that this is a myth of the highest order.

Muscle tissue is muscle tissue. Fat tissue is fat tissue. One will never become the other.

Myth #2 Strength Training Doesn’t Burn Fat

On the contrary, muscle mass is your number one ally against fat gains.

A pound of muscle burns 10-20 calories each day, while you’re just living and breathing. Regular strength training helps you increase your muscle mass as well as preserve existing muscle mass, turning you into a fat burning machine.

Myth #3 Lifting Weights Makes Women Bulk Up

Yes, strength training increases the amount of muscle on your body; so many women take this to mean that their body will become body-builder-esque, which is quite the look you’re going for.

The truth is that the female body simply doesn’t contain high enough levels of testosterone to produce that level of results without a very focused and dedicated effort.

The tighter, toned figure of a recreational female weight lifter is every bit feminine.

Myth #4 Strength Training Is For Young People Only

Ha, that’s a used-up excuse that senior citizens across the globe have shattered.

Assuming that your doctor has given you the OK, you have much to gain from a regular weight lifting routine.

Improved balance and coordination, better strength and flexibility, and a decreased risk of osteoporosis are just the beginning.

Myth #5 Use Light Weight and High Reps To Tone

This myth, popularized in the 90’s, that very high repetitions of very light weights would result in a toned physique, has become outdated. These high repetitions will increase your muscular endurance but will not add strength or tone.

We now know that in order to truly challenge your muscles, heavier weights with lower repetitions are a must. Start with an 8-10 repetition range and push your muscles with each set.

Including strength training as a part of your fitness routine is essential for achieving a fit and toned body.

The Bilderberg Illuminati Secret Conference

Posted on June 13, 2016 by Anthony Jerdine

The Bilderberg Illuminati Secret Conference
By Anthony Jerdine| June 13, 2016 — 8:22 AM EDT

The world’s most secretive meeting took place on June 9-12. At an undisclosed location in Dresden, Germany, heads of states, politicians, tech luminaries and finance’s top names will convene for the 64th annual Bilderberg Summit. The invite-only conference will feature no press, no cameras and no quotes. Led by a steering committee, helmed by Henri de Castries, French Count and CEO of multinational insurance firm AXA, the Bilderberg provides its attendees with a forum for informal discussions about the major issues facing the world, without the need to propose resolutions or pass any votes deciding any outcome.

Naturally, the veil of secrecy has stimulated the imaginations of conspiracy theorists, who view the Bilderberg Meetings as a forum for a cabal of the world’s elite to influence the future course of humanity. One of the most popular conspiracy theories behind the purpose of the meetings, is the furthering of the so-called “New World Order”—a homogenous single government that seeks to impose its dominion over every sovereign nation on the planet.

However, real life is not as nefarious. According to the Bilderberg’s official page, the key topics discussed included:

Current events (most likely with an emphasis on Brexit)
China
Europe: migration, growth, reform, vision, unity
Middle East
Russia
US political landscape, economy: growth, debt, reform
Cyber security
Geo-politics of energy and commodity prices
Precariat and middle class
Technological innovation
Perhaps the SPECTRE-esque plots were on the other memo. Rather, the remarkably tame list is reminiscent of other exclusive meetings such as Davos. Of note however, is the discussion around the “precariat”, which according to British economist Guy Standing, who popularized the term, are:

“…the perpetual part-timers, the minimum-wagers, the temporary foreign workers, the grey-market domestics paid in cash… the techno-impoverished whose piecemeal work has no office and no end, the seniors who struggle with dwindling benefits, the indigenous people who are kept outside, the single mothers without support, the cash laborers who have no savings, the generation for whom a pension and a retirement is neither available nor desired.’

In other words, the marginalized and alienated groups that are fueling the rise of demagogues such as Donald Trump and new Philippines president Rodrigo Duerte, is a cause of concern amongst the global elite.

Some of the big names on this year’s guest list includes, several finance ministers, professors, 30 plus heads of companies, such as John Cryan, CEO of Deutsche Bank AG (DB), David Cote, CEO of Honeywell (HON), Ben van Beurden CEO of Royal Dutch Shell plc (RDS), Peter Thiel, President of Thiel Capital and co-founder of Paypal (PYPL) and Eric Scmidt, Executive Chairman of Alphabet Inc (GOOGL). And finally, before we get too dismissive about the conspiracies, note that two attendees from 1991 and 1993 were a young Senator from Arkansas by the name of Bill Clinton and a lowly minister by the name of Tony Blair. Coincidence? You decide.

3 Reasons Million-Dollar Homes Are in a Slump

Posted on May 13, 2016 by Anthony Jerdine

3 Reasons Million-Dollar Homes Are in a Slump
By Anthony Jerdine | May 13, 2016

The average sale price of U.S. luxury homes was down 1.1%, marking the largest decline in more than two years, according to Redfin, a company that provides web-based real estate database and brokerage services for residential markets. This slump marks a significant shift from a few years ago: Following the financial crisis of 2008, the wealthy enjoyed a strong recovery, and luxury housing was the top segment of the real estate market.

Today, home prices for the broader housing market – the other 95% – have risen 4.7% year-over-year, while the top 5% has become one of the weakest real estate segments. “For years, the high end was driving sales and price,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at Redfin. “Now, the demand is at the middle and lower price range.” Here is a look at three factors that are contributing to the slump.

1. Stock Market Volatility
It’s not unusual for high-end buyers to tap into their investment portfolios to finance luxury home purchases, either by cashing out a few stocks or borrowing against the portfolio using a non-purpose loan – a type of margin loan that uses the investment portfolio as collateral. Historically, high-end housing is hit the hardest by stock market downturns. “As you go up the income quintile, into the top 10%, 5%, 1% by income, their stock exposure increases,” said CoreLogic deputy chief economist Sam Khater. “For the typical family, the bulk of their equity is tied up in home equity, not stock equity. It’s the reverse for high income.”

The first two months of this year tested a lot of nerves on Wall Street as investors feared a repeat of the 2008 financial crash. The volatility has left some would-be luxury buyers cautious, and rather than jumping in now with all the volatility and uncertainty – both here and in overseas financial markets – many luxury buyers have decided to wait and see what happens in the second half of 2016 before making any decisions about entering the real estate market.

2. A Strong U.S. Dollar
Overseas buyers bought $104 billion in U.S. real estate – about 8% of the total existing home sales’ dollar volume – during the one-year period ending March 2015, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Buyers from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan were the top foreign buyers of real estate, accounting for nearly $29 billion in sales.

Now, demand from foreign buyers is weakening in response to a strong U.S. dollar (and the relative weakness of other currencies), coupled with higher home prices for those buyers – a situation that greatly affects the affordability of high-end properties. In January, for example, the median price of existing U.S. homes was 67% higher than a year ago for buyers from Brazil, due to changes in the exchange rate, according to NAR. For Canadian buyers, the price increased 27%, and for Chinese buyers, 14%.

3. Oversupply at the Top
During the first quarter of 2016, the number of luxury homes on the market – defined as the most expensive 5% of homes sold in a quarter – increased from a year prior, according to analysis from Redfin. For homes for sale above $1 million, there was a 3.3% rise in inventory, to 70,962; homes listed above $5 million were up 13.2%. “There is oversupply at the high end, especially in certain pockets and cities,” said Redfin’s Richardson. “They should be flying off the shelves, but these homes are just sitting there.”

Deeper inventory, paired with more nervous luxury buyers, has led to price cuts across the country. In Los Angeles, for example, an $18.8 million home sold for $10 million in the first quarter of this year. A $14 million home in The Woodlands, Texas, sold for half that – $7 million. During the same quarter, the highest-priced sale (outside of New York) was a 2.2-acre estate in North Laguna, Calif. listed for $75 million. It sold for $45 million – a 40% discount.

The Bottom Line
Across the United States, the average sale price of U.S. luxury homes fell 1.1%, but certain markets have been hit harder than others. In Miami Beach, for example, a surplus of luxury development, combined with fewer foreign buyers, led to a 13.7% drop in luxury home prices. In Austin and Boston – considered hot real estate markets today – prices in the top 5% fell almost 12%, while at the same time, prices for the other 95% of the market rose 5.1% and 6.3%, respectively. Prices for luxury real estate may continue to drop while there’s volatility in the stock market, an oversupply at the top and foreign buyers are skittish.

7 Secrets

Posted on May 11, 2016 by Anthony Jerdine

1.Walk 25% faster
Psychologists studies shows that slovenly posture and sluggish walking attract unpleasant attitudes toward oneself, work and even people around us. However, psychology also tell us that you can also improve your attitude and emotions by changing your posture and speeding up your movements.
Follow someone who is functioning at an “average” level in life and pay close attention to how that person walks. That person has an average way of walking. Right?
Now find someone who is very successful and pay attention to how that person walks. Let me know what you’ve noticed.

2.Don’t overthink about it
“Actions cure fears”. The more you wait on something to happen or the more you wait to take a decision is the more unlikely it is going to happen. You want to start your own business, don’t wait on the economy to get better, it will never get better. Eliminate every excuses and come up with reasons why you should start your own business or accomplish whatever you think about every day.

3.Speak Up
Be a leader and hold that position. Be the first one to comment on something, be the first one to have an opinion, be the person of influence and people will treat as you are. Make it a rule to speak up at every opportunity you have.

4.Be cheap
Stop ALL spending except on those things that can increase income. Do NOT spend to consume;spend only to increase income. My mentor had $1,200,000 in cash but he was still driving a Toyota Corolla at the time. He was saving most of his income and people thought that he was always broke. In reality, he was being “cheap”. You need to be cheap to increase your stack and have money to invest in the future.

5.Write your goals
Get a journal and treat it as the most sacred journal you ever had.
Respect it and consume it every day. Find the purpose of your mission. What do you want to accomplish? What do you want your life to look like? How much do you want to earn? What type of friends do you want to have? Describe every details of the life that you desire into words. Writing your goal with a pen allows your mind to focus on one only thing which is the action of writing those goals. Make it a rule to wright your goals every single day. Your goals will start changing soon or later. You’ll have bigger goals and a bigger vision.

6.Create a dream board
After writing your goals, put them into pictures, numbers, and ideas. Have several dream boards around your house and your office. They will remind you of your goals and you’ll always be connected to them.

7. Develop the habit of reading every day
Every successful people have a strong habit of reading. By reading, you learned about the mistakes of others and you have the power to avoid them when you see them. Reading also grow your knowledge and your confidence. Even if it’s 10 minutes a day, it will impact your mindset. Have you ever met a shy and dumb millionaire? If yes, I would love to meet that person.

Make it a rule to apply those secrets as a daily routine and you will become as powerful as any CEO on the planet.

6 Things to Understand about Human Brain

Posted on April 21, 2016 by Anthony Jerdine

I was reading a good Book on a beautiful Cleveland morning. The author of Riveted explains how you can make your message go viral (it takes real skill, or you will be ignored and forgotten).

Jim Davies says you have to understand 6 things about the human brain to win friends and influence people:

1. We are interested in stories about humans…

2. We pay particular attention to things we hope or fear are true…

3. We delight in finding patterns…

4. We are attracted to incongruity, apparent contradictions, novelty, and puzzles…

5. The nature of our bodies—the nature of our eyes and other sense organs, affects what kinds of things draw us…

6. We have certain psychological traits, many of which are evolved, that make us like and dislike, believe and disbelieve…

So when you speak, write, and interact with other people, make sure you utilize all 6 of these to compel, fascinate, and persuade everyone you meet.

Oil Stocks Jump

Posted on April 13, 2016 by Anthony Jerdine

Oil Stocks Jump on Promised Production Freeze
By Anthony Jerdine April 13, 2016

Shares of offshore driller SeaDrill Limited (SDRL) skyrocketed Tuesday, climbing almost 30% to a high of $3.99, fueled by a 4.5% rise in oil prices. This continues the tug-of-war between the bulls and bears the market has witnessed over the past couple of weeks.
Another Case of “Too Fast, Too Soon?”
On Tuesday the bulls sent oil prices higher on reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed to a production freeze ahead of the producers meeting in Doha, Qatar on Sunday. This was further driven by a Reuters report suggesting the government expects the U.S. crude output to decline by 560,000 barrels per day in 2017 to 8.04 million barrels per day.

“People are now realizing that this OPEC meeting could be a historic turning point for the market,” Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group, told Reuters. “Now, with U.S. production cuts, our sense is that we’re entering a new cycle upwards.”

SDRL shares closed Tuesday at $3.83, rising 24.35%. The company makes money from drilling contracts, supplying drilling services for oil and gas wells. And as oil prices rise, it raises optimism about the company’s potential revenue in the quarters ahead. Not to mention, rising oil improves the prospects for more favorable drilling contracts. But is this another case of “too fast, too soon?”

As it now stands, U.S. oil prices are now at their 2016 highs and well above $40 per barrel – an important near-term psychological benchmark. On Tuesday, Crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) closed at $42.17 per barrel, while Brent crude closed up $1.86, or 4.3% at $44.69, according to CNBC.com. But as we’ve seen in recent weeks, oil can take a sudden negative turn.

Investors should remain vigilant, if not a bit skeptical, that a meeting between members of OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) Sunday will result in a production freeze.

“The market appears to be taking a lot of support from positive statements. But, this isn’t the first time the Russians have come out and made remarks related to a production freeze being imminent,” said Gene McGillian, a senior analyst at Tradition Energy, according to CNBC.
Despite Tuesday’s massive rise in the share price, SDRL stock has suffered 64% declines over the past twelve months, compared to a 2% decline in the S&P 500 (SPX) index during that same span. Is now the best time to take some profits from SDRL shares? The stock has a consensus sell rating and an average analyst 12-month price target of $1.73, implying a decline of 55% from Tuesday’s close.

Law of Attraction

Posted on April 11, 2016 by Anthony Jerdine

The Law Of Attraction is a modern spin on ancient philosophies. Through conceptualization and effort we can draw more positive elements and opportunities to us. If we imagine an opportunity or aspect of reality and focus on it, working towards that goal, we can manifest our desires and wishes.

It’s a simple concept that a lot of people complicate. Below is a checklist of common occurrences that happen as we start to strengthen and broaden our communication with the universe or higher power.

You Always Feel Ready For Change

You aren’t afraid to face your fears and challenges head on, giving everything you’ve got to life. You accept the things you can’t change and are grateful for what you can change. Change is a necessary and unstoppable part of life. By welcoming constantly in flux aspects of life, we ensure that we are in a position to best take advantage of our shifting horizons.

Your Attention Is Kept On The Present Moment

The present moment is the only time frame that we have power over. The past is irreversible and subject to interpretation depending on why we are looking backwards. The future is completely uncertain and full of assumptions and expectations. The best way to manifest a better tomorrow is to keep our present moment in line with our intentions.

You Naturally Turn The Negative Into Positive

You understand that you won’t be successful at everything you do all the time. Besides our own shortcomings sometimes negative aspects pile up at our feet, seeming to limit our options. You use the negative in your life to serve your best interests. Treat negativity like you would fertilizer or manure, use it to strengthen and grow other formations within you. Learn from your mistakes and don’t let them haunt you.

You Feel Happy And Content

Your abilities give you a sense of Zen, regardless of what’s going on in your life. You are confident in your ability to roll with the punches and maximize your harvest of good things in your life. Even when everything seems counter intuitive and wrong you understand these feelings will pass.

Good Things Keep Happening To You

Despite any hiccups or shortcomings, you always seem to come out on top. This is due to the fact that you’re flexible mentality and forward moving momentum help you adapt and maximize any possible benefits. Also, you have learned to be appreciative for what you have, so this celebration attracts more benefits to you.

Oil Producers Not Alone in Downturn

Posted on March 31, 2016 by Anthony Jerdine

Oil Producers Not Alone in Downturn
By Anthony Jerdine | March 30, 2016

Much is written about the plight of shale oil producers stemming from the downturn in oil prices. Forty-two oil companies declared bankruptcy in the U.S. in 2015, according to Haynes and Boone, and management consulting companies like Deloitte predict much more will experience the same fate in 2016. (For more, see: 5 Energy Companies Crushed by Low Oil in 2016.) Oil producers are not the only ones suffering in the oil downturn. Many other sectors related to oil production are also facing challenges as the number of Exploration and Production (E&P) companies declaring bankruptcy grows.

Midstream Companies
Oil transportation companies, also known as midstream companies, are feeling the pressure of low oil prices. E&P companies, or upstream companies, are hoping to exit deals made with these midstream transportation companies as oil producers seek bankruptcy protection under Chapter 11 restructuring, reports Oil & Gas 360. It is an unusual move because these transport contracts are usually unbreakable and remain in place even after production is sold to a new owner post-bankruptcy. In this lower oil price environment; however, upstream companies that are burdened with high debt loads are seeking alternative ways to free themselves from other financial obligations to provide more flexibility during bankruptcy proceedings.

This is a real headache for midstream companies that negotiated transportation contracts when oil prices were significantly higher than they are today. Bankrupt E&P companies are no longer able to pay previously negotiated prices and are trying to cancel pipeline contracts to clear the way for possible acquisition deals. For example, Quicksilver Resources Inc. is seeking to cancel its pipeline transportation contract with Crestwood Midstream Partners LP(CEQP) by March 31 to close the sale of its U.S. assets to BlueStone Natural Resources for $245 million, Reuters reports.

In another deal, Sabine Oil & Gas filed a motion in court to cancel its midstream contracts. Sabine argued that it “could not deliver the required minimum amounts of gas and condensate and that rejection would save Sabine as much as $115 million,” according to the law firm Jones Day. Fitch Ratings, a credit rating agency, said in a press release related to Sabine Oil & Gas’s motion to cancel its contracts with the midstream service providers that “counterparty risks continue to be a concern for the midstream service space given expectations for continued E&P bankruptcy activity.”

Offshore Drillers
Another sector that is under a lot of pressure is the offshore drilling sector. Moody’s, another credit rating agency, says the offshore drilling industry is going through a severe cyclical downturn, and the agency expects day-rates to remain depressed over the next several years because of low producer spending and rig oversupply.

Paragon Offshore plc filed for bankruptcy on February 15, affecting $2.4 billion worth of debt, according to Moody’s. Paragon joins several other energy companies that have sought creditor protection amid the oil rout. Hercules Offshore Inc., the owner of the largest fleet of shallow-water drilling rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, said Feb. 11 that it’s exploring strategic alternatives — just three months after emerging from bankruptcy, Bloomberg reports.

At the end of February, Moody’s concluded rating reviews on six U.S. offshore drilling companies. Moody’s downgraded two companies’ ratings three notches, three companies’ ratings four notches and one company’s rating (Ensco plc) five notches to B1 from Baa2. The sharp downgrade reflects Moody’s view that Ensco’s leverage will increase to very high levels as more of its rigs roll off contracts in an extremely challenging offshore contract drilling market.

Multiple notch rating moves are rare for the rating agencies and are usually reserved for industries or companies under considerable financial strain.

Rig Contractors
Rig contractors have suffered the double blow of declining customer demand due to tumbling oil prices and a glut of vessels that continue to be built to meet orders made before the rout, Rigzone reports. Transocean Ltd. (RIG) leads the industry in reducing its fleet, with 24 rigs scrapped since the downturn began and it could retire another eight to ten over the next year to 18 months. In the meantime, Schlumberger (another oil industry service provider) said it’s not expecting a meaningful recovery in its own activity until next year.

Bank Loan Exposure
Debt has fuelled the shale boom, but as prices fell, companies that borrowed too much have started to find themselves under strain. This is also putting pressure on the banks that lent to these companies to fund the expansion. IMF economists warned in February that commodity price shocks could weaken banks in developing economies. It is not just regional banks in the US that are feeling the pain—big international banks have exposure to the oil sector too.

As an example, bankrupt Paragon Offshore mentioned earlier, has debt that includes $708 million due under a revolving credit agreement and $642 million due under a secured term loan, both organized by JPMorgan Chase Bank, Bloomberg reports. As a result, several major banks are reducing their exposure to the energy sector by attempting to sell off souring loans, declining to renew them or clamping down on the ability of oil and gas companies to tap credit lines for cash, the Wall Street Journal reports.
It is not just production companies that are hurting from the drop in oil prices. Everyone from businesses that sell ancillary services such as transportation to the banks that finance the industry is feeling the effects of low prices. If oil prices stay at depressed levels for an extended period, then the number of companies filing for bankruptcy is likely to rise and will extend beyond just the upstream producers.

Brokered Convention

Posted on March 28, 2016 by Anthony Jerdine

Brokered Convention: What Would It Mean for Republicans?
By Anthony Jerdine| Updated March 28, 2016

As former Right to Rise Super PAC chief Mike Murphy told the Weekly Standard after Jeb Bush dropped out of the race, things were different before there were political primaries. “You’d just pack a quart of liquor, a revolver, and go to the convention.” Those days are gone, but on the Republican side at least, they may be about to make a comeback.

As of Thursday, March 24, real estate mogul Donald Trump leads the much-thinned-out Republican pack with 739 delegates. Texas Senator Ted Cruz trails him by a significant margin, with 465, while Ohio Governor John Kasich has 143 (Florida Senator Marco Rubio, who dropped out earlier this month, has 166).

If the nomination simply went to the candidate with the largest tally, Trump’s task would be simple. But the Republican National Convention requires its nominee to win the majority of the party’s 2,472 delegates. The magic number, in other words, is 1,237. If no candidate hits that threshold in the convention’s first ballot, the party holds a dreaded “brokered” convention, leaving the door open for a candidate without an unassailable mandate to win the nomination.

What are the Odds?
Kasich, who won the state he governs outright and has picked up delegates here and there in states that award them proportionally, seems determined to stay in the race, despite his failure to pick up any delegates in Tuesday’s contests in Arizona, Utah and American Samoa. Assuming the three-man race continues, things could go awry for Trump in large states that award delegates proportionally – such as California on June 7 – and he could find himself short of the magic number come July 18.

Then what happens? Depending on the size of his shortfall, Trump could still become the nominee when the delegates cast their first ballot in Cleveland, since over 100 unbound and uncommitted delegates’ votes will be up for grabs. In Pennsylvania, for example, the primary is mostly cosmetic, and 54 of the state’s 71 delegates vote as they please. Then there are the 181 delegates that were awarded to candidates who have since dropped out: these are reassigned according to a bewildering array of state laws and rules.

What are the odds there’s still no nominee after the first ballot is cast? According to Paddy Power, the safer bet is that the first round yields a nominee, with odds of 1/3 (implied probability of 75%) as of Wednesday, compared to 9/5 for a second round (implied probability of 36%).

Brokered Conventions of Yesteryear
For the sake of argument, say that it does come to a second vote. Then the quarts come out, and the power brokers retreat to their smoke-filled rooms. Since the process was revamped after 1968, Republicans have not had a brokered convention. The last one was in 1952, when Eisenhower clinched the nomination despite trailing Ohio Senator Robert Taft in the initial tally.

From 1860 to 1948, nine Republican conventions came to multiple ballots. In six of those conventions, the eventual winner did not start off with the most delegates. In 1880, James Garfield came to Chicago without a single delegate and left with the nomination. The next year he moved into the White House.

Today’s hypothetical open convention would probably differ from these precedents. For example, describing these conventions as “brokered” evokes the political bosses who ran the show in the old days, but the bosses are mostly a thing of the past. The Party Establishment, as much as it is maligned and blamed for Republicans’ woes, has seen its power wane in recent years, so “open convention” – with its ring of chaos – is probably the better term.

The Rules
If the first ballot does not yield a nominee, most of the delegates would then become “unbound” and free to vote as they pleased in the second ballot. At that point, a sizeable anti-Trump faction within the party would likely attempt to rally support around another candidate. That candidate could be Cruz, Kasich, or someone who did not even appear on the primary ballot.

Gary Emineth, an unbound delegate from North Dakota, speculated to CNBC on March 16, “It could introduce Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, or it could be the other candidates that have already been in the race and are now out of the race [such as] Mike Huckabee [or] Rick Santorum. All those people could eventually become candidates on the floor.”

That possibility remains as long as the RNC does not keep Rule 40b for the 2016 convention, requiring the nominee to win the majority of delegates in at least eight states. If the rule were kept, Trump would probably be the only eligible nominee. An important caveat: the votes in question are not based on results from primary contests, according to RNC Rules Committee member and North Dakota unbound delegate Curley Haugland, but the votes taken by delegates at the start of the convention. Those results are not necessarily one and the same.

What if the second ballot doesn’t yield a nominee? Then they hold a third, a fourth, a fifth and so on. Rule 40e states, “If no candidate shall have received such majority, the chairman of the convention shall direct the roll of the states be called again and shall repeat the calling of the roll until a candidate shall have received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention.” In 1880 the Republicans held 36 rounds of voting before settling on Garfield, although that’s nothing compared to the 103 the Democrats held in 1924.

The People Speak
Barring total gridlock, the likely result of an open convention situation would be horse-trading among the de facto leaders of various party factions, leading some to question the democratic merits of the process as it’s currently structured. Party representatives have only fed into this line of criticism. Asked on CNBC why the GOP bothers to hold primaries at all if the party, rather than voters, decides the nominee, Haugland answered, “That’s a very good question.”

In the same vein, Diana Orrock, a Nevada delegate and Trump supporter, told CNBC Monday, “People are under the misconception that it’s the results of the caucus and the results of the primary that determines who becomes the nominee. In actuality, it’s the delegates at the national convention that are supposed to pick the nominee.”

Donald Trump has anticipated the possibility that he could lose the nomination, remarking to CNN on March 16, “I think you’d have riots. I think you’d have riots.” Earlier that day, Cruz said something similar about the prospect of a brokered convention: “I think that would be an absolute disaster. I think the people would quite rightly revolt.” (See also: The Changing Demographics and the 2016 Elections.)

The Bottom Line
Since revamping the primary process after 1968, the Republicans have not held a brokered convention. That doesn’t make it impossible, however, and history shows that almost anything can happen once the second – or 36th – ballot is cast, from a comfortable win for the front-runner to a nomination for the zero-delegate also-ran. In other words, Kasich isn’t out of the race yet. Neither, for that matter, is Rubio. Or Romney.

7 Things that Successful Entrepreneurs do differently

Posted on March 27, 2016 by Anthony Jerdine

Posted by Anthony Jerdine | March 27, 2016

There is a popular trend on social media at the moment that talks about us all having the same amount of hours in the day as Oprah and Richard Branson. How do some entrepreneurs get so much done in one day? It’s been proven that working longer and harder is not in itself a recipe for success. So what exactly are the successful ones doing differently? Here are seven of their dirty little secrets.

1. Love What you Do

Successful entrepreneurs stay in high vibration doing work they love. Passion and inspiration are a powerful combination. And as Steve Jobs reminds us ‘the only way to do great work is to love what you do.’

Find your passion and even when you’re distracted and swayed, stay there.

2. Eye on the Prize

The more clarity you have on your vision the more real it becomes. The power of visualization is not just about seeing, it’s also about feeling. Successful entrepreneurs feel what it’s like being on top of the mountain, not the climb to get there. They see their path as one of greatness, taking them to their destiny.
Connect with your vision daily, through a vision board, mantras, a quiet walk, meditation, whatever works for you.

3. Present and Real

Big hairy ass goals are great but they can also be damn hard to achieve. Successful entrepreneurs accept where they are now. They start with small steps whilst keeping an eye on the big vision. Goals are more achievable when broken down into manageable stages, ninety-day challenges or weekly goals.

Set a daily focus and ask yourself, for each activity you do, ‘is this taking me closer to my goal?’

4. Pay to Play

Successful people rarely resemble the person they started out as in business. Investing in personal and business development is a non negotiable for all successful entrepreneurs. Further education, programs, books, coaching, summits and seminars all play a part. This passion for learning, expanding and growth is inherently in their genes.

Learn from those that have gone before you how to grow and develop in your business, so that you can in turn inspire others.

5. Mindset Mastery

The mindset piece is hands down, the most important piece to the puzzle.
Mastering your mind is a lifelong journey. Until you get comfortable going deep with the things that are holding you back, you can’t truly expand and flourish. As Mike Dooley reminds us, ‘thoughts become things.’ Everything you’re thinking gradually starts to become your reality. Get some perspective on those thoughts and speak to yourself like you speak to a loved one.

Meet your shadows, recognize your fears and move past them. Something great awaits on the other side of fear.

6. A Meeting of Minds

Tim Ferris says ‘we are the average of the five people we spend the most time with.’ So choose carefully. If we could manage to achieve everything on our own we’d more than likely have achieved it all by now, right? Successful entrepreneurs have support around them, like-minded people who inspire them and keep them accountable.

Surround yourself with like-minded people who can support you, propel you forward and keep you accountable.

7. A Deep Desire

This drive for achievement and success, or ‘hunger’ as Tony Robbins calls it, is something that sets the successful apart. It’s this hunger that fuels the body and keeps the tank full. It’s linked to your passion and your why from point number one. The ‘hungry’ have a clear purpose and an unwavering focus on the end result.
No matter how you feel, you need to get up, show up and never give up. Are you incorporating these habits into your daily routine? Keep them consistent and you will soon start to see the difference. Here’s to your success!

Thanks again to Helen Roe for the great insight!

Investment Crowdfunding

Posted on March 18, 2016 by Anthony Jerdine

Investment Crowdfunding

Investment crowdfunding is a way to source money for a company by asking a large number of backers to each invest a relatively small amount with it. In return, backers receive equity shares of the company. Normally restricted to accredited investors, the 2012 JOBS Act in the United States allows for a greater scope of investors to invest via crowdfunding once it is implemented.

Investment crowdfunding may also entail obtaining debt as well as equity stakes. Micro-loan providers are a source of debt investment whereby a large group of individuals may invest in a small piece of a larger loan. Lenders typically know the purpose of the loan and the terms including interest rate, length of the loan, and estimated credit rating of the borrower. Lenders receive an interest rate typically higher than other debt instruments due to the credit risk associated with borrowers; however, they can spread a large amount of money incrementally across a large number of loans. Borrowers may seek this sort of financing when traditional borrowing is too costly, or is not an option for them.

‘Investment Crowdfunding’
Entrepreneurs typically have found seed money to start a new business by taking loans from banks, family & friends, or by offering equity ownership in return for investment from family & friends or from angel and venture capital investors. Investment crowdfunding now allows a start-up to seek relatively small investments from a large number of backers when other fundraising options are not available or come with too much cost. Backers receive shares of the new company commensurate with the amount invested. Popular platforms for equity crowdfunding are SeedInvest and FundersClub.

Micro-lending platforms such as LendingClub and Prosper allow for crowdfunded debt financing where a backer, instead of owning part of the company, becomes a creditor and receives regular interest payments until the loan is eventually paid back in full.

Both equity and debt investment crowdfunding can be risky, but investors can diversify a sum of money across a wide range of choices. Crowdfunding insurance has been discussed as a way to mitigate a portion of the investment risk associated with crowdfunding in return for a premium payment.

Investment Crowdfunding