Using Elliott Wave To Trade Forex Markets By Anthony Jerdine
In terms of the total value of all transactions, the forex market has become the largest market in the world. As the economies of countries across the globe become more and more intertwined, the relationship between the currencies of various countries grows in importance. It is this development that continues to drive interest in the forex markets. This article will examine a method to trade forex markets using the Elliott Wave Theory.
The Elliott Wave Theory The Elliott Wave Theory is a method of analysis developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871-1948) that is based on the theory that, in nature, many things happen in a five-wave pattern. As applied to the financial markets, the assumption is that a given market will advance in a pattern of five waves – three up waves, numbered 1, 3 and 5 – which are separated by two down waves, number 2 and number 4. The theory further holds that each five-wave up-move will be followed by a down-move also consisting of five waves – this time, three down waves, numbered 1, 3 and 5, separated by two up waves numbered two and four.
In addition, the theory holds that each of the countertrend waves – i.e., wave number 2 and number 4 – will unfold in an ABC pattern. In other words, during waves 2 and 4 of a five-wave uptrend, the security in question will retrace part of the wave 1 advance in a pattern consisting of two smaller down waves (labeled A and C) separated by one up wave (labeled B). Likewise, during waves 2 and 4 of a five-wave down-trend, the security in question will retrace part of the wave one decline in a pattern consisting of two smaller up-waves (labeled A and C) separated by one down-wave (labeled B).
In reality, things typically do not unfold in such a neat, clean, and easy to follow five-wave pattern. As a result, many individuals who espouse a belief in Elliott Wave analysis nevertheless end up interpreting the current wave count differently than other adherents. And in fact, it can be argued that the Elliott Wave is as much an art as it is a science, and that various interpretations are to be expected.
As such, one important thing to note is that this article is not so much about how to generate an Elliott Wave count – since so many individuals end up with different interpretations – but rather about how to trade forex markets using the Elliott Wave as the driving force. For the purposes of this article, I will use the Elliott Wave count as generated objectively by ProfitSource source software by Hubb. The software has an automated algorithm for generating and displaying the wave count.
It should be noted that the preferred count can change dramatically from one day to the next based on the built-in algorithm, and that another person or program may arrive at a different interpretation of the wave count and any given point in time. Still the benefit of using this method is that for better or worse, the count is calculated using an objective algorithm and is not open to subjective interpretation.
Laying Out the Steps of a Plan Before embarking on any trading campaign it is essential to have a plan in place. So let’s set up a straightforward plan for using Elliott Wave as a basis for trading forex markets. Here are the steps that we will employ:
Step 1. Select a method for generating an Elliott Wave count. This may be based on your own analysis, or via some charting or analysis software. As mentioned, we will use the wave count generated by ProfitSource software by HUBB. Step 2. Wait for a wave 5 to begin. In ProfitSource this occurs when a wave marked as “3” changes to a wave marked as “4” (this actually indicates the end of wave 4 and the start of wave 5). Waiting for this to occur can be the toughest part, for this step can require a great deal of patience. A given single forex market may experience the setup that we are looking for only a few times a year. Step 3. Look for confirmation of the trend using another indicator or indicators. Long Setup Confirmation: Once a wave 3 above the price bar changes to a wave 4 marked below the price bar we will then assess the following indicators to confirm that a long trade should be made: 90-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is positive (i.e., greater than zero) The three-day relative strength index reverses to upside for one day. These two confirming actions do not have to take place on the day that the wave number changes from 3 to 4. As long as the both occur at some point prior to the wave count being something other than 4, then a confirmation is considered to be in force and we will enter a long trade.
Short Setup Confirmation: Once a wave 3 below the price bar changes to a wave 4 marked above the price bar we will then assess the following indicators to confirm that a short trade should be made:
90-day CCI is negative (i.e., greater than zero) The three-day RSI reverses to downside for one day These two confirming actions do not have to take place on the day that the wave number changes from 3 to 4. As long as the both occur at some point prior to the wave count being something other than 4, then a confirmation is considered to be in force and we will enter a short trade.
Step 4. Identify a reasonable stop-loss point. For a long setup we will subtract three times the three-day average true range from the low established leading up to the trade as our initial stop-loss point. For a short setup we will add three times the three-day average true range to the high established leading up to the trade, and use this as our initial stop-loss point (See example to follow). Step 5. Enter trade and stop-loss order. We will assume that a trade is entered at the next day’s open price. The stop-loss order will also be placed. This order is a trailing stop and we be updated each day that the trade is open. Step 6. Consider taking some profits on first good move and trail a stop for the rest of the position. Trade Exit Plan 1. If stop-loss order is hit then the entire trade is exited.
2. If the three-day RSI reaches 85 or higher for a long trade, or 15 or lower for a short trade, or if the wave count changes from 4 to 5, we will sell half and adjust our trailing stop as follows:
For a long trade we will use a trailing stop that subtracts one times the three-day average true range from the previous day’s low. For a short trade we will use a trailing stop that adds one times the three-day average true range to the previous day’s high. 3. If the wave count changes to something other than a wave 5, we will simply exit the trade on the next day.
Example Setup and Trade In Figure 1 we see the setup for a short trade. On the most recent trading day, the blue number 4 first appeared above the price bar. Prior to the day, a blue number 3 had appeared below each price bar for the past several days. This suggests that a wave 5 decline may be setting up.
Below the bar chart you can see that the three-day RSI ticked lower on the day and that the 90-day CCI is in negative territory. This confirms the setup and constitutes a sell short signal, so we also calculate our stop-loss price by adding three times the average true range over the last three days to the current day’s high price. On the next day the euro/yen cross was sold short at 112.63 and a trailing stop was entered at 117.74. Figure 1 – A sell short setup for the euro/yen cross is completed. In Figure 2 you can see that roughly a month later the three-day RSI registered a reading below 15. As a result, on the next day we would have bought back half of our position at 109.50 and also adjusted our trailing stop to only one times (rather than three times) the average true range over the past three days added to the current day’s high, thus generating a much tighter trailing stop (this tighter stop does not appear until Figure 3). Figure 2 – Three-day RSI signal profit-taking opportunity; half of short position is covered and trailing stop is tightened. Finally, in Figure 3 you can see that the euro/yen cross worked slightly lower over the next several weeks, but ultimately our trailing stop was hit and the remaining portion of our original short position was closed out at 109.44. Figure 3 – Trailing top is hit; trade is exited.
Conclusion There are many ways to interpret an Elliott Wave count. There are also many methods for entering and exiting trades once a signal is deemed to have occurred. This article serves as an example of just one way to go about performing these tasks. Whatever method one ultimately chooses the keys to successful implementation are to:
Develop some objective way to interpret the current Elliott Wave count. Consider employing some sort of filter or filters to ensure a valid trading signal. Always have a stop-loss point. Consider taking profits on the first good move in the expected direction and then letting the rest ride with a trailing stop.
The rumors aren’t true I’ve got to warn you. There are false rumors going around about strength training.
The truth is that strength training is one of the absolute best things you can do for your health and appearance.
If you’ve fallen for these 5 myths then you’re missing out on tremendous potential results.
Myth #1 Muscle Turns Into Fat
Why would anyone want to build muscle if it could morph into fat after a span of disuse? Rest assured that this is a myth of the highest order.
Muscle tissue is muscle tissue. Fat tissue is fat tissue. One will never become the other.
Myth #2 Strength Training Doesn’t Burn Fat
On the contrary, muscle mass is your number one ally against fat gains.
A pound of muscle burns 10-20 calories each day, while you’re just living and breathing. Regular strength training helps you increase your muscle mass as well as preserve existing muscle mass, turning you into a fat burning machine.
Myth #3 Lifting Weights Makes Women Bulk Up
Yes, strength training increases the amount of muscle on your body; so many women take this to mean that their body will become body-builder-esque, which is quite the look you’re going for.
The truth is that the female body simply doesn’t contain high enough levels of testosterone to produce that level of results without a very focused and dedicated effort.
The tighter, toned figure of a recreational female weight lifter is every bit feminine.
Myth #4 Strength Training Is For Young People Only
Ha, that’s a used-up excuse that senior citizens across the globe have shattered.
Assuming that your doctor has given you the OK, you have much to gain from a regular weight lifting routine.
Improved balance and coordination, better strength and flexibility, and a decreased risk of osteoporosis are just the beginning.
Myth #5 Use Light Weight and High Reps To Tone
This myth, popularized in the 90’s, that very high repetitions of very light weights would result in a toned physique, has become outdated. These high repetitions will increase your muscular endurance but will not add strength or tone.
We now know that in order to truly challenge your muscles, heavier weights with lower repetitions are a must. Start with an 8-10 repetition range and push your muscles with each set.
Including strength training as a part of your fitness routine is essential for achieving a fit and toned body.
The Bilderberg Illuminati Secret Conference By Anthony Jerdine| June 13, 2016 — 8:22 AM EDT
The world’s most secretive meeting took place on June 9-12. At an undisclosed location in Dresden, Germany, heads of states, politicians, tech luminaries and finance’s top names will convene for the 64th annual Bilderberg Summit. The invite-only conference will feature no press, no cameras and no quotes. Led by a steering committee, helmed by Henri de Castries, French Count and CEO of multinational insurance firm AXA, the Bilderberg provides its attendees with a forum for informal discussions about the major issues facing the world, without the need to propose resolutions or pass any votes deciding any outcome.
Naturally, the veil of secrecy has stimulated the imaginations of conspiracy theorists, who view the Bilderberg Meetings as a forum for a cabal of the world’s elite to influence the future course of humanity. One of the most popular conspiracy theories behind the purpose of the meetings, is the furthering of the so-called “New World Order”—a homogenous single government that seeks to impose its dominion over every sovereign nation on the planet.
However, real life is not as nefarious. According to the Bilderberg’s official page, the key topics discussed included:
Current events (most likely with an emphasis on Brexit) China Europe: migration, growth, reform, vision, unity Middle East Russia US political landscape, economy: growth, debt, reform Cyber security Geo-politics of energy and commodity prices Precariat and middle class Technological innovation Perhaps the SPECTRE-esque plots were on the other memo. Rather, the remarkably tame list is reminiscent of other exclusive meetings such as Davos. Of note however, is the discussion around the “precariat”, which according to British economist Guy Standing, who popularized the term, are:
“…the perpetual part-timers, the minimum-wagers, the temporary foreign workers, the grey-market domestics paid in cash… the techno-impoverished whose piecemeal work has no office and no end, the seniors who struggle with dwindling benefits, the indigenous people who are kept outside, the single mothers without support, the cash laborers who have no savings, the generation for whom a pension and a retirement is neither available nor desired.’
In other words, the marginalized and alienated groups that are fueling the rise of demagogues such as Donald Trump and new Philippines president Rodrigo Duerte, is a cause of concern amongst the global elite.
Some of the big names on this year’s guest list includes, several finance ministers, professors, 30 plus heads of companies, such as John Cryan, CEO of Deutsche Bank AG (DB), David Cote, CEO of Honeywell (HON), Ben van Beurden CEO of Royal Dutch Shell plc (RDS), Peter Thiel, President of Thiel Capital and co-founder of Paypal (PYPL) and Eric Scmidt, Executive Chairman of Alphabet Inc (GOOGL). And finally, before we get too dismissive about the conspiracies, note that two attendees from 1991 and 1993 were a young Senator from Arkansas by the name of Bill Clinton and a lowly minister by the name of Tony Blair. Coincidence? You decide.
GOP HQ Hotel in Cleveland: A State-Owned Enterprise By Anthony Jerdine
When Republicans gather in Cleveland to formally nominate Donald Trump for president in July, their headquarters will be a brand new hotel whose very existence contradicts party orthodoxy on private enterprise, less government and lower taxes. Were the Hilton Cleveland Downtown located in in Havana, or in Moscow during the Soviet era, Republicans in a diplomatic mode would call it “state-owned.” Those favoring Trump’s aggressively plain English would call it a communist hotel. That’s because Cuyahoga County taxpayers own the hotel—not that they had any say in the matter. The Cuyahoga County Commissars – er, sorry, Commissioners – forced taxpayers three years ago to pay for the $276 million hotel, which is scheduled to open June 1 and connects directly to the Cleveland Convention Center, where the party will nominate its presidential standard bearer. The taxpayers own everything in the hotel, including the signs that say “Hilton.”
How did this come to pass? The county spent years trying to attract private investors to take on this project. After none did, it forced taxpayers into underwriting it. The hotel got built through a convoluted series of transactions involving the city, the county and others so the land would be tax-exempt. The city and county will collect no property taxes, but the schools will be made whole, said Jeffrey Appelbaum, the lawyer on the project and a construction expert. The hotel is being paid for with an increase in the county sales tax that is expected to raise $20 million per year for 20 years. In addition, the county added a 1 percent excise tax on hotel rooms. The excise tax from the Hilton will be cycled back to cover the bond payments, meaning guests will be hit for a small part of the cost. Appelbaum said the hotel was built for much less than a private developer would have spent, which appears to be true. Still, that efficiency is hardly an argument Republicans would buy into just as they reject national single-payer healthcare even though it would be much cheaper than our disorganized nonsystem system of sick care, and it would remove a huge burden from small business owners. Republicans also wouldn’t be crazy about the origins of a lot of the hotel inventory, which runs directly counter to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan, under which he assumes a president posses dictatorial powers. Trump says if elected he will order companies like Carrier, Ford and Nabisco to build factories only in America and slap punitive tariffs on foreign-made goods, powers not granted the president under the Constitution. The flatware and furniture offend the Trump creed. While extolling the private enterprise system after dinner, Republican delegates will put Spada brand cake forks into their desserts. The 5,400 forks, made in Indonesia, cost local taxpayers $10,314, or $1.91 each. The hotel could have bought flatware from the only American maker, Liberty Tabletop in suburban Syracuse, N.Y. The top-floor bar, with views of Lake Erie, features sofas, bar stools and other furniture from Astoria Imports, a Florida firm that has factories and warehouses in Mexico and Asia, as well as some domestic operations. Trump may be more comfortable with the sourcing of the banquet napkins, table clothes and table skirts, which cost Cleveland taxpayers $92,526.48. They came from a division of Mount Vernon Mills, which made clothing for the Confederate Army, though the company says its work for the 19th Century traitors was performed “under protest.” It also notes that the mill owner concealed this work for the Confederacy from Union General William T. Sherman, who decided against burning it to the ground after an evening of hospitality from the owners. But it’s how the hotel came to exist in the first place that should offend Republicans. It required more government, not less. And what if the hotel does not generate enough revenue to pay the bondholders? On the surface the bonds are called revenue bonds, not general obligations of Cuyahoga County. But that’s a clever deceit. If revenue falls short the county must appropriate money to make up the difference, even if that means raising taxes, to ensure that the bondholders get fully paid. Local boosters soon made a promise of “300,000 visitors and $330 million in spending” if they could just get a taxpayer owned convention center for medical conferences and a hotel, as reported by Roldo Bartimole, an 83-year-old self-employed journalist who has offered independent and critical assessment of Cleveland area government for a half century. Bartimole said the whole idea was just another way to pick the pockets of taxpayers for the benefit of the local oligarchs. He also railed against a tax increase to subsidize, forever, the Cleveland Browns football team, Cavaliers basketball team and the Indians baseball team, two of which are owned by out-of-town billionaires. To justify making taxpayers build a hotel a local group ordered up a study from PKF Consulting in Philadelphia. With lots of lots of tables and charts showing that the hotel would not just succeed, it would rent out so many rooms at rising prices that over the next five years it should expect that 17 cents out of every dollar of revenue would become net profit. This being a government-owned hotel technically it’s a net surplus, but the idea remains the same. Experience suggests this was a paid-for fantasy report. Around the country there are now at least 33 taxpayer owned hotels. Like communism in practice they have not done well. The one in St Louis was an utter failure, sold off for about 32-cents on the dollar. Other big convention hotels, both those owned outright by taxpayers and those with heavily subsidized private owners, have “a checkered past,” said Heywood T. Sanders, a University of Texas-San Antonio professor and author of the book Convention Center Follies. He notes that the trend toward taxpayer subsidized hotels traces back to the late 1970s with Urban Development Block Grants or UDAGs. “We say the H in UDAG is for hotel, but it’s a silent H,” Sanders joked. From 1978 to 1989 a quarter of all UDAG money went for hotel projects, in all 60,000 rooms added at 236 hotels that were new or renovated, political scientist Richard D Bingham wrote in his 1998 book Industrial Policy American Style. The new trend is toward not subsidizing hotels, but having taxpayers own them. A study in December, published in the journal Cornell Hospitality Quarterly, concluded from analyzing 21 of these hotels that they are bad for private enterprise. Proponents claim taxpayer-owned hotels will increase business and thus benefit existing hotels. But the study found that taxpayer owned hotels “tend to erode the key performance metrics of competitive hotels in the market.” So just remember the next time you are told that Republicans are the party of free enterprise, less government and lower taxes that they chose as their national party convention headquarters what they would call a communist hotel built here in America. About the author: Pulitzer Prize winner and recipient of an IRE medal and the George Polk Award, David Cay Johnston is author of five books and the upcoming The Prosperity Tax: A New Federal Tax Code for the 21st Century Economy. He is a Distinguished Visiting Lecturer at Syracuse University College of Law and Whitman School of Management, and also writes for The Daily Beast and Tax Notes.
3 Reasons Million-Dollar Homes Are in a Slump By Anthony Jerdine | May 13, 2016
The average sale price of U.S. luxury homes was down 1.1%, marking the largest decline in more than two years, according to Redfin, a company that provides web-based real estate database and brokerage services for residential markets. This slump marks a significant shift from a few years ago: Following the financial crisis of 2008, the wealthy enjoyed a strong recovery, and luxury housing was the top segment of the real estate market.
Today, home prices for the broader housing market – the other 95% – have risen 4.7% year-over-year, while the top 5% has become one of the weakest real estate segments. “For years, the high end was driving sales and price,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at Redfin. “Now, the demand is at the middle and lower price range.” Here is a look at three factors that are contributing to the slump.
1. Stock Market Volatility It’s not unusual for high-end buyers to tap into their investment portfolios to finance luxury home purchases, either by cashing out a few stocks or borrowing against the portfolio using a non-purpose loan – a type of margin loan that uses the investment portfolio as collateral. Historically, high-end housing is hit the hardest by stock market downturns. “As you go up the income quintile, into the top 10%, 5%, 1% by income, their stock exposure increases,” said CoreLogic deputy chief economist Sam Khater. “For the typical family, the bulk of their equity is tied up in home equity, not stock equity. It’s the reverse for high income.”
The first two months of this year tested a lot of nerves on Wall Street as investors feared a repeat of the 2008 financial crash. The volatility has left some would-be luxury buyers cautious, and rather than jumping in now with all the volatility and uncertainty – both here and in overseas financial markets – many luxury buyers have decided to wait and see what happens in the second half of 2016 before making any decisions about entering the real estate market.
2. A Strong U.S. Dollar Overseas buyers bought $104 billion in U.S. real estate – about 8% of the total existing home sales’ dollar volume – during the one-year period ending March 2015, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Buyers from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan were the top foreign buyers of real estate, accounting for nearly $29 billion in sales.
Now, demand from foreign buyers is weakening in response to a strong U.S. dollar (and the relative weakness of other currencies), coupled with higher home prices for those buyers – a situation that greatly affects the affordability of high-end properties. In January, for example, the median price of existing U.S. homes was 67% higher than a year ago for buyers from Brazil, due to changes in the exchange rate, according to NAR. For Canadian buyers, the price increased 27%, and for Chinese buyers, 14%.
3. Oversupply at the Top During the first quarter of 2016, the number of luxury homes on the market – defined as the most expensive 5% of homes sold in a quarter – increased from a year prior, according to analysis from Redfin. For homes for sale above $1 million, there was a 3.3% rise in inventory, to 70,962; homes listed above $5 million were up 13.2%. “There is oversupply at the high end, especially in certain pockets and cities,” said Redfin’s Richardson. “They should be flying off the shelves, but these homes are just sitting there.”
Deeper inventory, paired with more nervous luxury buyers, has led to price cuts across the country. In Los Angeles, for example, an $18.8 million home sold for $10 million in the first quarter of this year. A $14 million home in The Woodlands, Texas, sold for half that – $7 million. During the same quarter, the highest-priced sale (outside of New York) was a 2.2-acre estate in North Laguna, Calif. listed for $75 million. It sold for $45 million – a 40% discount.
The Bottom Line Across the United States, the average sale price of U.S. luxury homes fell 1.1%, but certain markets have been hit harder than others. In Miami Beach, for example, a surplus of luxury development, combined with fewer foreign buyers, led to a 13.7% drop in luxury home prices. In Austin and Boston – considered hot real estate markets today – prices in the top 5% fell almost 12%, while at the same time, prices for the other 95% of the market rose 5.1% and 6.3%, respectively. Prices for luxury real estate may continue to drop while there’s volatility in the stock market, an oversupply at the top and foreign buyers are skittish.
1.Walk 25% faster Psychologists studies shows that slovenly posture and sluggish walking attract unpleasant attitudes toward oneself, work and even people around us. However, psychology also tell us that you can also improve your attitude and emotions by changing your posture and speeding up your movements. Follow someone who is functioning at an “average” level in life and pay close attention to how that person walks. That person has an average way of walking. Right? Now find someone who is very successful and pay attention to how that person walks. Let me know what you’ve noticed.
2.Don’t overthink about it “Actions cure fears”. The more you wait on something to happen or the more you wait to take a decision is the more unlikely it is going to happen. You want to start your own business, don’t wait on the economy to get better, it will never get better. Eliminate every excuses and come up with reasons why you should start your own business or accomplish whatever you think about every day.
3.Speak Up Be a leader and hold that position. Be the first one to comment on something, be the first one to have an opinion, be the person of influence and people will treat as you are. Make it a rule to speak up at every opportunity you have.
4.Be cheap Stop ALL spending except on those things that can increase income. Do NOT spend to consume;spend only to increase income. My mentor had $1,200,000 in cash but he was still driving a Toyota Corolla at the time. He was saving most of his income and people thought that he was always broke. In reality, he was being “cheap”. You need to be cheap to increase your stack and have money to invest in the future.
5.Write your goals Get a journal and treat it as the most sacred journal you ever had. Respect it and consume it every day. Find the purpose of your mission. What do you want to accomplish? What do you want your life to look like? How much do you want to earn? What type of friends do you want to have? Describe every details of the life that you desire into words. Writing your goal with a pen allows your mind to focus on one only thing which is the action of writing those goals. Make it a rule to wright your goals every single day. Your goals will start changing soon or later. You’ll have bigger goals and a bigger vision.
6.Create a dream board After writing your goals, put them into pictures, numbers, and ideas. Have several dream boards around your house and your office. They will remind you of your goals and you’ll always be connected to them.
7. Develop the habit of reading every day Every successful people have a strong habit of reading. By reading, you learned about the mistakes of others and you have the power to avoid them when you see them. Reading also grow your knowledge and your confidence. Even if it’s 10 minutes a day, it will impact your mindset. Have you ever met a shy and dumb millionaire? If yes, I would love to meet that person.
Make it a rule to apply those secrets as a daily routine and you will become as powerful as any CEO on the planet.